First a trade war, then a pandemic: Cotton farmers continue to bear the brunt

Blake Fennell was on his cotton farm in Earth, Texas, when his tractor broke down. Under normal circumstances he would have taken it to the local dealership for repair. But this was early 2020. He was barely recovering from the previous year’s bad crop and the pandemic had just hit. Instead, the thirty-year old pulled the tractor into his garage and worked on it himself to save money.

It was supposed to be a good year. It was off to a bad start.

The economic devastation from the pandemic is often measured in job losses, restaurant closures and loans issued to small businesses. But the economic pain was felt down on the farm as well. Reduced demand for clothing from consumers in urban places around the world translated into harsh losses for cotton farmers in the United States. For farmers like Fennell who regularly confront the uncertainties of unpredictable weather and market volatility, the pandemic was an additional hurdle.

Fennell is a fourth-generation farmer and grows cotton on the land his father bought. With his dark hair, Van Dyke beard and easy smile, he is amongst the youngest in his community of farmers in West Texas. After getting a bachelor’s degree in agronomy eight-years-ago, he returned to the farm to do what he calls “his life’s passion”.

“I grew up on the farm. I was the kid who played with the toy tractors in the backyard. Taking over the farm was what I had always dreamt of doing.”

The South Plains regions of West Texas, where Fennell’s farm is located, is the largest cotton producing area in the world. Cotton is planted in May and harvested in October through December, and grows well in the region’s weather. Largely produced for export, Fennell admits he enjoys the challenge of growing cotton.

“It is almost like it’s got a personality,” he said, eyes lighting up. “Cotton is very picky. Takes a lot of sunshine, but not too much. Takes water but not too much. Needs heat but not too much.”

“There’s nothing more rewarding than having a good pretty cotton crop at the end of the year.”

However, the past few years have not been the kindest to cotton farmers in the region. Farmers like Fennell walked into 2020 with the burden of heavy tariffs imposed by China, the largest importer of cotton, as a result of a trade war with the United States. 2019 was also a year of dry weather and a ghastly ‘haboob’ or dust storm that blew over Lubbock, which threatened to destroy the year’s crop. Fennell and the farmers in his community were optimistic they would have a better year in 2020. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its February 2020 report, said “global consumption is expected to resume growing” and “end stocks are projected to be lower”. Low end stocks are an indication of greater consumption, implying high demand and more profit for cotton farmers. The pandemic dampened all their hopes.

Cotton is considered a discretionary cash crop, used mainly by the textile industry. As a precaution against the coronavirus, mills in China and India that process U.S. cotton had shut down, and apparel stores closed. Demand for cotton around the world slumped. The latest report from the USDA estimated that piles of end stock had, in fact, doubled.

“We took a pretty big hit. We were starting to shrink our production of cotton, and this year’s looking to go along the same path,” said Fennell.

For Earth’s small community of fewer than 80 people, the pandemic did not trigger a fear for health and safety, but a fear of disruptions in farm supply. Fennell decided to make sure he had everything he needed for a whole year on the farm. This included seeds, herbicides, fertilizers and even spare equipment parts, especially those manufactured in China. He even stocked up on diesel, fearing gas prices would fluctuate drastically, especially ahead of the November elections.

While he did eat some losses by the end of the year, Fennell is aware he is amongst the lucky ones. As many as 16 farms in Texas filed for bankruptcy at the end of 2020, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Farm proprietary income in Texas showed a decline of 98% in the second quarter, compared to the same time in 2019, as per data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

While there is much uncertainty ahead, Fennell’s biggest concern now is the dry weather. He fears that if West Texas does not receive rain by end-March, there might be no cotton crop at all. Farmers in the region, including Fennell, have considerably increased their acreage of grain sorghum or “milo” as an alternative. Milo uses less water to grow and is seeing high bids from China.

Does he enjoy growing milo as much as he does cotton? Fennell shrugged, adjusting his ball cap. “I am an eternal optimist. In farming you have to be, or it would just drive you nuts.”